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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 32 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 32 games
59%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Largo
Largosignature
tOfu · 24 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
57%

Xtreme Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 32 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 29 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 24 games
46%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ame · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Ame · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
574 picks · 407 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
491 picks · 292 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 387 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 494 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 630 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
338 picks · 315 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
334 picks · 235 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 462 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total70% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:49
Team Liquid 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:09:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
50% · 234 games58% · 119 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
57% · 207 games53% · 121 game
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Earthshaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
46% · 241 game43% · 113 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctortOfu
44% · 25 games52% · 496 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
43% · 197 games50% · 55 games
Winter WyvernxNova
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct33:37
Team Liquid 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosNisha
46% · 39 games55% · 105 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Alchemist
AlchemistmiCKe
50% · 64 games66% · 25 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
54% · 65 games47% · 52 games
Sand KingNothingToSay
Sand King
Mirana
MiranatOfu
58% · 34 games37% · 74 games
Dark Willowfy
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
45% · 145 games51% · 91 game
RingmasterxNova
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct33:8
Team Liquid 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
51% · 205 games48% · 75 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Tiny
TinymiCKe
42% · 402 games49% · 54 games
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Earthshaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
50% · 330 games50% · 300 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranatOfu
54% · 49 games46% · 433 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoxi
55% · 72 games56% · 196 games
LargoxNova
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 70%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3