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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 26 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 17 games
59%
Kez
Kez
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 15 games
60%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 25 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
562 picks · 724 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 352 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 547 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 134 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 184 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 528 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 514 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Team Liquid 75%Zero Tenacity 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
48% · 144 games49% · 219 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
52% · 339 games53% · 40 games
ClinkzKami
Clinkz
Slardar
SlardarAce
46% · 198 games49% · 334 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
54% · 267 games48% · 231 game
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
50% · 6 games51% · 130 games
ClockwerkMoOz
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct29:28
Team Liquid 73%Zero Tenacity 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
49% · 144 games54% · 36 games
ClinkzKami
Clinkz
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
47% · 289 games56% · 229 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeAce
49% · 137 games55% · 286 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
59% · 9 games49% · 63 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
40% · 159 games51% · 124 games
ClockwerkMoOz
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 90%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2