DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balu Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 17 games
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 17 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 16 games
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
661 picks · 752 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 507 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
Warlock
451 picks · 308 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1107 bans
Phoenix
396 picks · 325 bans
Puck
392 picks · 799 bans
Mars
388 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
Team Lynx 91%Balu Team 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 22:06.
Game 2prediction correct32:8
Team Lynx 91%Balu Team 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 22:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 91%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2