European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balu Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Hoodwink
QBFY · 33 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 26 games
Techies
kreker · 26 games
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 22 games
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
473 picks · 287 bans
Mirana
326 picks · 132 bans
Dark Willow
325 picks · 141 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 452 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 291 bans
Clockwerk
270 picks · 210 bans
Undying
266 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Balu Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total86% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Team Lynx 86%Balu Team 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 27:52.
Game 2prediction correct33:19
Team Lynx 86%Balu Team 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 86%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2