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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Syntaxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 29 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 26 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 26 games
62%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
57%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 21 game
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
45%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 17 games
41%

Team Syntax

Tusk
Tusksignature
Stoic · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
33%
Largo
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 5 games
80%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
20%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
emptiness · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Jeezy · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
482 picks · 328 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 458 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 511 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 504 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 638 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 312 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
268 picks · 193 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total90% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:11
Team Lynx 75%Team Syntax 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezTA2000
55% · 25 games49% · 167 games
Winter WyvernJuju
Winter Wyvern
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
61% · 40 games
Tiny
Tinymellojul
47% · 39 games
Mirana
Miranakreker
45% · 40 games
Techies
TechiesQBFY
48% · 23 games
Game 2prediction correct33:9
Team Lynx 75%Team Syntax 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 23:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
36% · 21 game53% · 192 games
MiranaJuju
Mirana
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
36% · 32 games
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
57% · 42 games
Techies
Techieskreker
61% · 14 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
46% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 90%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2