European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 6 games
Inner Circle
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 14 games
Tusk
Fernans · 14 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
743 picks · 351 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 633 bans
Hoodwink
538 picks · 288 bans
Puck
433 picks · 1180 bans
Tusk
432 picks · 259 bans
Dragon Knight
430 picks · 467 bans
Mars
425 picks · 705 bans
Jakiro
381 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 32%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:18
Team Lynx 49%Inner Circle 51%
The model gave 51% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa7jesu
Troll Warlordyowaai
Ember Spiritmellojul
TimbersawNorma
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Storm Spiritспортик
40% · 21 game
Spirit Breakerxsvampire
Game 2prediction correct19:6
Team Lynx 50%Inner Circle 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight7jesu
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Queen of Painспортик
Batridermellojul
Nature's Prophetyowaai
45% · 35 games
Spirit Breakerxsvampire
Game 3prediction missed14:16
Team Lynx 50%Inner Circle 50%
The model gave 50% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling7jesu
Ursayowaai
Puckmellojul
Ember Spiritспортик
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
MarciNorma
45% · 147 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 53%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3