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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
57%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 12 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
50%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 18 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 15 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
587 picks · 926 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 419 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 659 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 640 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 936 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 646 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 528 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
372 picks · 230 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Lynx 48%Inner Circle 52%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Lynx 48%Inner Circle 52%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 52%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2