DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 18 games
Ivory
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 9 games
Jakiro
Teehee · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
Dric~ · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Dric~ · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
616 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
508 picks · 402 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 400 bans
Phoenix
443 picks · 491 bans
Hoodwink
429 picks · 210 bans
Warlock
407 picks · 253 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1035 bans
Puck
383 picks · 875 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:22
Team Lynx 68%Ivory 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid7jesu
LunaKarma丶
Queen of Painmellojul
PangolierKen
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
UnderlordRupido
Phoenixkreker
HoodwinkDric~
Dark WillowQBFY
BaneTeehee
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Team Lynx 67%Ivory 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 19:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
AlchemistKarma丶
Lone Druid7jesu
DawnbreakerRupido
Queen of Painmellojul
Ember SpiritKen
Silencerkreker
EnchantressTeehee
RubickQBFY
TechiesDric~
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 80%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2