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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
7jesu · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lightless · 2 games
0%

Kalmychata

Sven
Sven
rincyq · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mirage · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
meLes · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
xn丶e · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 622 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
446 picks · 395 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
427 picks · 471 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
411 picks · 851 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 563 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 361 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 539 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
Team Lynx 48%Kalmychata 52%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
54% · 241 game51% · 93 games
Broodmotherrincyq
Broodmother
Doom
DoomStoneBank
52% · 241 game48% · 337 games
PangoliermeLes
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
53% · 198 games41% · 87 games
Queen of Painxn丶e
Queen of Pain
48% · 163 games
Shadow Demonjesv
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed31:9
Team Lynx 47%Kalmychata 53%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa7jesu
56% · 107 games55% · 102 games
Doomrincyq
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerStoneBank
44% · 160 games45% · 95 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death Prophetmellojul
48% · 55 games49% · 75 games
TimbersawmeLes
Timbersaw
52% · 50 games
Naga Sirenjesv
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct11:30
Team Lynx 48%Kalmychata 52%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muerta7jesu
52% · 169 games52% · 46 games
Svenrincyq
Sven
Abaddon
AbaddonStoneBank
53% · 39 games47% · 53 games
MarsmeLes
Mars
Death Prophet
Death Prophetmellojul
55% · 25 games40% · 41 game
Queen of Painxn丶e
Queen of Pain
50% · 93 games
Pugnajesv
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 55%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3