European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 10 games
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 8 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 6 games
Dazzleoften banned
Rein · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
721 picks · 347 bans
Disruptor
597 picks · 632 bans
Hoodwink
504 picks · 258 bans
Puck
420 picks · 1173 bans
Mars
417 picks · 693 bans
Tusk
416 picks · 258 bans
Dragon Knight
401 picks · 419 bans
Jakiro
356 picks · 213 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:36
Team Lynx 37%Most Wanted 63%
The model gave 63% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 23:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
Puckniche
Night StalkerVladikTheHtiviy
MarcifortniteMan
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ursarubikon155
54% · 105 games
ChenRein
54% · 129 games
SnapfirePonlo
Game 2prediction correct18:35
Team Lynx 37%Most Wanted 63%
The model gave 63% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet7jesu
Terrorbladebashka
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Storm Spiritniche
Shadow Fiendmellojul
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
57% · 111 games
ChenRein
51% · 173 games
DisruptorPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 72%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2