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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2
series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
44%

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 23 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
gotthejuice · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 709 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 353 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 660 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 546 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
412 picks · 138 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
398 picks · 186 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 521 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 522 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:17
Team Lynx 24%Natus Vincere 76%
The model gave 76% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
50% · 255 games48% · 16 games
Omniknightgotthejuice
Omniknight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 277 games51% · 89 games
Shadow FiendNiku
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
56% · 125 games47% · 143 games
Axepma
Axe
48% · 207 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
44% · 202 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct6:20
Team Lynx 23%Natus Vincere 77%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger7jesu
50% · 32 games45% · 142 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
53% · 338 games52% · 45 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Slardar
Slardarmellojul
55% · 239 games45% · 130 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
46% · 162 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
46% · 130 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct10:21
Team Lynx 21%Natus Vincere 79%
The model gave 79% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight7jesu
46% · 405 games50% · 130 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
47% · 213 games49% · 281 game
TinyNiku
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
47% · 213 games54% · 239 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
60% · 162 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
55% · 19 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 92%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3