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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 12 games
33%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 11 games
27%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 9 games
22%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
13%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 7 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 7 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 737 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 355 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 650 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 552 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 629 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 542 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 126 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
369 picks · 180 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 24%
Hero pool strength67% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 73%Natus Vincere Junior 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Lynx 73%Natus Vincere Junior 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 73%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2