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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 18 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 16 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
60%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%

Natus Vincere Junior

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gbc · 15 games
13%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Gothic- · 13 games
31%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
onLiTaL · 13 games
15%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 12 games
8%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 12 games
25%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 10 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
611 picks · 814 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
545 picks · 565 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 297 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1036 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 673 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 599 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
355 picks · 938 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 14%
Hero pool strength72% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total90% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Team Lynx 78%Natus Vincere Junior 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger7jesu
50% · 286 games48% · 133 games
KezonLiTaL
Kez
Tiny
Tinymellojul
48% · 485 games55% · 258 games
Shadow Fiendgbc
Shadow Fiend
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 195 games49% · 341 game
Marskrol9ash
Mars
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
57% · 231 game50% · 469 games
WarlockHyugadoto
Warlock
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
45% · 222 games48% · 218 games
MarciGothic-
Marci
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Team Lynx 78%Natus Vincere Junior 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
47% · 404 games55% · 284 games
Shadow Fiendgbc
Shadow Fiend
Largo
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
55% · 142 games51% · 412 games
BeastmasteronLiTaL
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
52% · 487 games47% · 281 game
Slardarkrol9ash
Slardar
Lion
LionQBFY
50% · 87 games53% · 113 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
Warlockkreker
46% · 637 games46% · 667 games
JakiroHyugadoto
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 90%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2