European Pro League Season 36 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 3:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Nemiga Gamingloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 18 games
Nemiga Gaming
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
Pucksignature
young G · 14 games
Hoodwink
ariel · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
629 picks · 614 bans
Tiny
508 picks · 413 bans
Tusk
472 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
430 picks · 453 bans
Warlock
416 picks · 267 bans
Hoodwink
408 picks · 190 bans
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1047 bans
Puck
379 picks · 856 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Team Lynx
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total67% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:41
Team Lynx 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta7jesu
Ember Spirityoung G
Razormellojul
PangolierCovisnine
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Lifestealerselfhate
Dark WillowQBFY
Rubickariel
Techieskreker
DazzleVaniLLl
Game 2prediction correct30:22
Team Lynx 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Queen of Painyoung G
Void Spiritmellojul
Alchemistselfhate
Monkey King7jesu
PangolierCovisnine
Grimstrokekreker
JakiroVaniLLl
Dark WillowQBFY
Tuskariel
Game 3prediction correct23:9
Team Lynx 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta7jesu
Invokeryoung G
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
PangolierCovisnine
Slardarmellojul
Faceless Voidselfhate
RubickQBFY
EnchantressVaniLLl
Techieskreker
Hoodwinkariel
Game 4prediction missed13:49
Team Lynx 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer7jesu
Kunkkaselfhate
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Razoryoung G
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Night StalkerCovisnine
Dazzlekreker
Techiesariel
RubickQBFY
GrimstrokeVaniLLl
Game 5prediction correct30:20
Team Lynx 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna7jesu
Shadow Fiendselfhate
Beastmastermellojul
Razoryoung G
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
KunkkaCovisnine
Treant Protectorkreker
Techiesariel
RubickQBFY
SilencerVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 67%
Series resultTeam Lynx 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5