European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 6 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 29 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 19 games
Batridersignature
Kaori · 17 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 16 games
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
740 picks · 350 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 639 bans
Hoodwink
532 picks · 279 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1189 bans
Mars
428 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
428 picks · 267 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 459 bans
Jakiro
376 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:20
Team Lynx 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand Kingmellojul
JuggernautNande
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Monkey KingCopy
Slark7jesu
UnderlordPalantimos
51% · 111 games
BatriderEkki
46% · 198 games
JakiroKidaro
Game 2prediction correct24:38
Team Lynx 33%Pipsqueak+4 67%
The model gave 67% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 32:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci7jesu
TerrorbladeNande
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Storm SpiritCopy
Sand Kingmellojul
AxePalantimos
51% · 187 games
TuskEkki
49% · 48 games
DazzleKidaro
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 78%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2