DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 1:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
Sand King
mellojul · 9 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 42 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 33 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 33 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 29 games
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 333 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 531 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 198 bans
Mars
381 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
Team Lynx 37%Pipsqueak+4 63%
The model gave 63% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 48:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
Shadow FiendNande
Rubickmellojul
Ember SpiritCopy
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
UnderlordPalantimos
50% · 66 games
EnigmaEkki
44% · 281 game
Jakiroaik
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 74%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1