European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 24 games
Rubick
QBFY · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 21 game
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 20 games
Power Rangers
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 28 games
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 28 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
Tusk
Immersion · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
511 picks · 300 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 575 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 350 bans
Jakiro
431 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
372 picks · 324 bans
Rubick
352 picks · 188 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 842 bans
Puck
346 picks · 847 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:26
Team Lynx 48%Power Rangers 52%
The model gave 52% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid7jesu
Templar AssassinTA2000
Timbersawmellojul
Sand Kingnicky`cool
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
LycanAlberkaaa
WindrangerQBFY
TechiesImmersion
Clockwerkkreker
Winter WyvernHduo
Game 2prediction correct12:33
Team Lynx 46%Power Rangers 54%
The model gave 54% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 28:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer7jesu
Kunkkanicky`cool
Puckmellojul
WindrangerTA2000
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
DoomAlberkaaa
HoodwinkQBFY
TechiesImmersion
Snapfirekreker
ClockwerkHduo
Game 3prediction correct11:39
Team Lynx 46%Power Rangers 54%
The model gave 54% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangoliermellojul
MagnusTA2000
Faceless Void7jesu
DoomAlberkaaa
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Batridernicky`cool
Techieskreker
SilencerHduo
HoodwinkQBFY
ClockwerkImmersion
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 56%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3