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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 34 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 26 games
42%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
39%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
44%

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 18 games
17%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
8%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 13 games
54%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 11 games
18%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 288 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
336 picks · 136 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 146 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 460 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 434 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 296 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 202 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 240 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 26%
Hero pool strength60% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:43
Team Lynx 68%PuckChamp 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
48% · 134 games49% · 356 games
Storm Spiritgbc
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
45% · 130 games50% · 277 games
Dragon Knightkrol9ash
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinymellojul
43% · 492 games53% · 378 games
WindrangerYuragi
Windranger
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionkreker
46% · 92 games60% · 225 games
Keeper of the LightHyugadoto
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
50% · 699 games56% · 311 games
LargoGothic-
Largo
Game 2prediction correct43:18
Team Lynx 67%PuckChamp 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
47% · 106 games45% · 275 games
Dragon Knightkrol9ash
Dragon Knight
Viper
Vipermellojul
55% · 158 games47% · 371 game
Storm Spiritgbc
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 202 games51% · 258 games
KezYuragi
Kez
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
51% · 667 games51% · 226 games
Keeper of the LightHyugadoto
Keeper of the Light
Bane
Banekreker
53% · 234 games48% · 237 games
TechiesGothic-
Techies
Game 3prediction correct42:12
Team Lynx 70%PuckChamp 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezv1olent-
49% · 266 games48% · 294 games
Dragon Knightkrol9ash
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
60% · 185 games49% · 398 games
Puckgbc
Puck
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 202 games42% · 457 games
TinyYuragi
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
53% · 673 games42% · 226 games
TechiesHyugadoto
Techies
Pugna
Pugnakreker
57% · 114 games55% · 65 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 80%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3