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EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 39 games
49%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
kreker · 29 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 22 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 19 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
QBFY · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
mellojul · 18 games
61%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 16 games
75%

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 19 games
16%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gothic- · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
8%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 12 games
25%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
18%
Pangolier
Pangolier
gbc · 10 games
20%
Slardar
Slardar
krol9ash · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
534 picks · 346 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
465 picks · 254 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
412 picks · 184 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
366 picks · 336 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 525 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
310 picks · 143 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 298 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
300 picks · 529 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 31%
Hero pool strength63% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Team Lynx 62%PuckChamp 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 69 games48% · 129 games
NecrophosonLiTaL
Necrophos
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
51% · 227 gameslittle data
Visagekrol9ash
Visage
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
52% · 31 game51% · 302 games
Pangoliergbc
Pangolier
Techies
Techieskreker
54% · 108 games46% · 125 games
DazzleAkamu
Dazzle
Windranger
WindrangerQBFY
49% · 207 games53% · 86 games
MarciGothic-
Marci
Game 2prediction correct30:14
Team Lynx 62%PuckChamp 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
52% · 216 games46% · 113 games
Brewmasterkrol9ash
Brewmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 85 games49% · 147 games
LifestealeronLiTaL
Lifestealer
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
54% · 173 games49% · 264 games
Slardargbc
Slardar
Techies
Techieskreker
55% · 160 games52% · 311 games
WindrangerGothic-
Windranger
Rubick
RubickQBFY
53% · 295 games37% · 94 games
DisruptorAkamu
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 68%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2