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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
20%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
100%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 637 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 418 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
411 picks · 854 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
403 picks · 454 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 338 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 19%Runa Team 81%
The model gave 81% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Lynx 19%Runa Team 81%
The model gave 81% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 81%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2