PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sskebobwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Sand King
mellojul · 12 games
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
skebob
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
552 picks · 833 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 369 bans
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 644 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 581 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 763 bans
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 585 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 545 bans
Mars
342 picks · 482 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% skebob
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:19
Team Lynx 45%skebob 55%
The model gave 55% on skebob — the game was taken by skebob in 42:13.
Game 2prediction correct42:45
Team Lynx 45%skebob 55%
The model gave 55% on skebob — the game was taken by skebob in 51:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteskebob · 55%
Series resultskebob 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2