?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
42%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
27%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
13%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
14%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 9 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kyford · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
SunshineRR · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
772 picks · 358 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
580 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 561 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
523 picks · 370 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
505 picks · 609 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 284 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 745 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 504 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:28
Team Lynx 55%Team Spirit Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight7jesu
46% · 173 games49% · 45 games
Broodmotherrubikon155
Broodmother
Leshrac
Leshracmellojul
47% · 68 games54% · 34 games
Huskar86
Huskar
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
48% · 96 games52% · 80 games
Primal BeastSunshineRR
Primal Beast
53% · 119 games
Shadow DemonAidar
Shadow Demon
56% · 59 games
Dazzlekyford
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Team Lynx 57%Team Spirit Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
54% · 284 games52% · 39 games
Anti-Magerubikon155
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
54% · 240 games52% · 170 games
Timbersaw86
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsVladikTheHtiviy
44% · 213 games51% · 296 games
Dragon KnightSunshineRR
Dragon Knight
42% · 150 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
51% · 82 games
Dazzlekyford
Dazzle
Game 3prediction missed28:29
Team Lynx 57%Team Spirit Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernaut7jesu
49% · 81 game50% · 66 games
Weaverrubikon155
Weaver
Leshrac
Leshracmellojul
47% · 145 games56% · 116 games
TimbersawSunshineRR
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
48% · 319 games50% · 154 games
Queen of Pain86
Queen of Pain
55% · 47 games
Nyx AssassinAidar
Nyx Assassin
50% · 162 games
Disruptorkyford
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3