European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Synapsewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Hoodwink
QBFY · 32 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 28 games
Techies
kreker · 26 games
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 23 games
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
Team Synapse
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 13 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 10 games
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 6 games
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
462 picks · 284 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 133 bans
Mirana
305 picks · 125 bans
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 454 bans
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 288 bans
Earth Spirit
279 picks · 415 bans
Clockwerk
273 picks · 235 bans
Undying
268 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Team Synapse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:36
Team Lynx 48%Team Synapse 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 46:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidv1olent-
TinyTA2000
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Void Spiritmellojul
Dark WillowJeezy
Hoodwinkkreker
Banebengan
MiranaQBFY
Game 2prediction correct8:49
Team Lynx 48%Team Synapse 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
UrsaTA2000
Tinymellojul
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Techiesbengan
MiranaQBFY
RingmasterJeezy
Banekreker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 57%
Series resultTeam Synapse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2