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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 15 games
60%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 13 games
69%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 13 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
45%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 11 games
73%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 21 game
76%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 11 games
55%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 11 games
82%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
617 picks · 951 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 430 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 626 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
430 picks · 969 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 553 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 457 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
409 picks · 250 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 536 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Team Lynx 61%VP.Prodigy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkz7jesu
57% · 65 games52% · 169 games
Shadow Fiendcutie
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal Beastmellojul
46% · 168 games48% · 297 games
PuckKatsura
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 309 games48% · 53 games
Largotakizawa
Largo
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
45% · 263 games51% · 244 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
50% · 108 games54% · 150 games
MarciJANTER
Marci
Game 2prediction correct49:24
Team Lynx 61%VP.Prodigy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:00:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
55% · 75 games45% · 40 games
Lunacutie
Luna
Ursa
Ursa7jesu
48% · 152 games44% · 45 games
Largotakizawa
Largo
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
47% · 200 games54% · 82 games
ViperKatsura
Viper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
54% · 199 games46% · 66 games
Bounty Hunterraregods
Bounty Hunter
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorkreker
63% · 61 game46% · 454 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 67%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2