European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
Zero Tenacity
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
Tiny
Stojkov · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
Warlock
LeBronDota · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
584 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
381 picks · 409 bans
Dark Willow
355 picks · 210 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
333 picks · 718 bans
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 632 bans
Puck
322 picks · 822 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:39
Team Lynx 28%Zero Tenacity 72%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend7jesu
AbaddonNefrit
Rubickmellojul
MarciNande
Dark SeerfortniteMan
LeshracMirage
64% · 73 games
Shadow Demonyamich
52% · 48 games
BaneSe
Game 2prediction correct14:54
Team Lynx 30%Zero Tenacity 70%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend7jesu
LeshracMirage
Rubickmellojul
TerrorbladeNande
UnderlordfortniteMan
BrewmasterNefrit
58% · 60 games
Snapfireyamich
48% · 32 games
DisruptorSe
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 85%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2