European Pro League Season 35 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 2:3series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Zero Tenacitywin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Sand King
mellojul · 20 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 15 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 45 games
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 44 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 41 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 40 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 39 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Se · 29 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
678 picks · 855 bans
Tiny
583 picks · 597 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 430 bans
Warlock
486 picks · 338 bans
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 1121 bans
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1030 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 696 bans
Mars
394 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total53% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:57
Team Lynx 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:05:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist7jesu
Sand KingWorick
Void Spiritmellojul
UrsaKami
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
UnderlordNefrit
Venomancerkreker
RingmasterdEsire
Dark WillowQBFY
JakiroMoOz
Game 2prediction correct25:44
Team Lynx 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa7jesu
MuertaKami
Ember Spiritmellojul
EnigmaNefrit
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
VenomancerMoOz
Pugnakreker
Sand KingWorick
LionQBFY
RingmasterdEsire
Game 3prediction missed37:4
Team Lynx 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
MuertaKami
Slark7jesu
BristlebackNefrit
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Primal BeastWorick
Dazzlekreker
JakiroMoOz
Nyx AssassinQBFY
HoodwinkdEsire
Game 4prediction missed55:42
Team Lynx 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 54:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razormellojul
DoomKami
BatriderVladikTheHtiviy
TidehunterNefrit
Wraith King7jesu
InvokerWorick
Jakirokreker
VenomancerMoOz
RingmasterQBFY
Shadow ShamandEsire
Game 5prediction correct13:48
Team Lynx 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna7jesu
AlchemistKami
Leshracmellojul
Ember SpiritWorick
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
DoomNefrit
HoodwinkQBFY
DisruptorMoOz
Undyingkreker
RingmasterdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 53%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5