Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team M11loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TATeam Apes Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team M11
No games played over 6 months.
Team Apes Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
480 picks · 330 bans
Queen of Pain
437 picks · 536 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 592 bans
Mars
378 picks · 535 bans
Kunkka
308 picks · 505 bans
Spirit Breaker
302 picks · 538 bans
Snapfire
265 picks · 127 bans
Wraith King
262 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team M11
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Apes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Apes Esports · 63%
Series resultTeam Apes Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect