?
arrow_backBack to match
i-League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 15 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 13 games
46%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 9 games
22%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
411 picks · 191 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 135 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 598 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 635 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 358 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 480 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
266 picks · 436 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
266 picks · 228 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team MagMa
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total51% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
Team MagMa 49%Aster.Aries 51%
The model gave 51% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 32:27.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team MagMa 49%Aster.Aries 51%
The model gave 51% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 33:03.
Game 3prediction correct10:13
Team MagMa 49%Aster.Aries 51%
The model gave 51% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 27:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 51%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3