OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Lion
Hyde · 19 games
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 15 games
Tinysignature
Palos · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 14 games
Iosignature
Skem · 13 games
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
352 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 103 bans
Mars
271 picks · 417 bans
Lina
265 picks · 533 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 363 bans
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
233 picks · 241 bans
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 65%
Hero pool strength61% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:44
Team MagMa 18%BOOM Esports 82%
The model gave 82% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:39.
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Team MagMa 18%BOOM Esports 82%
The model gave 82% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 82%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2