Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 987 bans
Void Spirit
368 picks · 529 bans
Mars
351 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 707 bans
Grimstroke
335 picks · 333 bans
Lion
312 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:14
Team MagMa 34%CDEC Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 38:57.
Game 2prediction correct5:20
Team MagMa 34%CDEC Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 20:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 66%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2