i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 1:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EHOMEwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
EHOME
Tusk
xNova · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 12 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 7 games
Grimstroke
Frisk · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Earth Spirit
xNova · 5 games
Lion
Frisk · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
459 picks · 1022 bans
Void Spirit
429 picks · 617 bans
Mars
376 picks · 659 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 659 bans
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 292 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 385 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:44
Team MagMa 25%EHOME 75%
The model gave 75% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 34:11.
Game 2prediction correct24:36
Team MagMa 25%EHOME 75%
The model gave 75% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:43.
Game 3prediction correct17:30
Team MagMa 25%EHOME 75%
The model gave 75% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 40:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 75%
Series resultEHOME 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3