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i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.

Phoenix Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
17%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1003 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
416 picks · 607 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 645 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
331 picks · 636 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
328 picks · 280 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
264 picks · 374 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
259 picks · 432 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team MagMa
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:25
Team MagMa 31%Phoenix Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 26:59.
Game 2prediction correct8:21
Team MagMa 31%Phoenix Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 30:54.
Game 3prediction correct43:26
Team MagMa 31%Phoenix Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 50:31.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 69%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3