OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ragdollloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Ragdoll
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
324 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
279 picks · 95 bans
Mars
270 picks · 407 bans
Lina
269 picks · 530 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
237 picks · 248 bans
Luna
232 picks · 331 bans
Abaddon
212 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:22
Team MagMa 47%Ragdoll 53%
The model gave 53% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 43:10.
Game 2prediction correct37:28
Team MagMa 47%Ragdoll 53%
The model gave 53% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 39:14.
Game 3prediction correct7:37
Team MagMa 47%Ragdoll 53%
The model gave 53% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 24:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 53%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3