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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
70%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 973 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
376 picks · 527 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 714 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 559 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 332 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
306 picks · 166 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 221 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 281 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Team MagMa 13%Team Aster 87%
The model gave 87% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:35.
Game 2prediction correct13:37
Team MagMa 13%Team Aster 87%
The model gave 87% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:43.
Game 3prediction correct16:28
Team MagMa 13%Team Aster 87%
The model gave 87% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 87%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3