SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 10 games
Marssignature
Srf · 9 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Another · 8 games
Banesignature
Dy · 7 games
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
547 picks · 368 bans
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 575 bans
Mars
446 picks · 601 bans
Weaver
423 picks · 778 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 175 bans
Kunkka
344 picks · 548 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 573 bans
Wraith King
286 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total67% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
Team MagMa 33%Xtreme Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:05.
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Team MagMa 33%Xtreme Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:09.
Game 3prediction correct34:18
Team MagMa 33%Xtreme Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 67%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3