Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
Marssignature
Srf · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 11 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 10 games
Banesignature
Dy · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 493 bans
Mars
353 picks · 499 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 489 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 475 bans
Death Prophet
257 picks · 396 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
248 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:21
Team MagMa 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:59.
Game 2prediction correct37:18
Team MagMa 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:27.
Game 3prediction correct25:4
Team MagMa 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 22:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3