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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Feltwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Magnus

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
txhyoo1 · 6 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 4 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chen · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Chen · 3 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Jack · 3 games
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Jack · 3 games
33%

Felt

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
solji · 2 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Steelborco · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Zore · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
solji · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Zore · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
314 picks · 441 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
274 picks · 684 bans
59%
Bane
Bane
273 picks · 207 bans
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
265 picks · 407 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
246 picks · 134 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
245 picks · 517 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
214 picks · 247 bans
45%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 472 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:33
Team Magnus 66%Felt 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Felt in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerJack
41% · 22 games49% · 164 games
Wraith KingKom4rt
Wraith King
Mars
MarsSakata Gintoki
45% · 215 games55% · 37 games
Outworld Destroyersolji
Outworld Destroyer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMark
43% · 55 games53% · 84 games
KunkkaZore
Kunkka
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demontxhyoo1
52% · 46 games55% · 139 games
WeaverSteelborco
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorChen
54% · 86 games
Game 2prediction correct50:44
Team Magnus 65%Felt 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 1:02:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJack
52% · 85 games60% · 227 games
Ember Spiritsolji
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMark
43% · 226 games53% · 148 games
Troll WarlordKom4rt
Troll Warlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterSakata Gintoki
42% · 141 game44% · 115 games
KunkkaZore
Kunkka
Weaver
Weavertxhyoo1
55% · 104 games54% · 157 games
BaneSteelborco
Bane
Tusk
TuskChen
44% · 91 game
Game 3prediction missed27:21
Team Magnus 64%Felt 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Felt in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJack
44% · 120 games56% · 171 game
MedusaKom4rt
Medusa
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSakata Gintoki
46% · 54 games58% · 197 games
Death Prophetsolji
Death Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMark
47% · 197 games49% · 106 games
KunkkaZore
Kunkka
Tusk
Tusktxhyoo1
44% · 86 games60% · 116 games
BaneSteelborco
Bane
Snapfire
SnapfireChen
41% · 133 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 77%
Series resultFelt 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3