Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Cutwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Void Spirit
Mark · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
txhyoo1 · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
txhyoo1 · 6 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Chen · 5 games
Disruptor
Chen · 4 games
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 7 games
Marssignature
dnm · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
dnm · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
438 picks · 323 bans
Mars
409 picks · 597 bans
Queen of Pain
346 picks · 418 bans
Weaver
342 picks · 773 bans
Snapfire
328 picks · 181 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 448 bans
Spirit Breaker
263 picks · 384 bans
Ember Spirit
243 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 80%
Hero pool strength61% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:26
Team Magnus 38%The Cut 62%
The model gave 62% on The Cut — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerJack
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Queen of PainMark
Shadow Fienddnm
Pangoliertxhyoo1
Monkey KingGiant
ClockwerkChen
Game 2prediction correct32:35
Team Magnus 38%The Cut 62%
The model gave 62% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 50:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingJack
TerrorbladeScourge McDuck
Spirit Breakertxhyoo1
Marsdnm
Legion CommanderMark
Shadow DemonGiant
WeaverChen
Game 3prediction correct28:34
Team Magnus 40%The Cut 60%
The model gave 60% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerJack
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Ember SpiritMark
Legion Commanderdnm
SilencerChen
EnchantressGiant
Nyx Assassintxhyoo1
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 69%
Series resultThe Cut 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3