DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTeam Mantapswin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Essenceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mantaps
No games played over 6 months.
Team Essence
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
Clockwerk
dalul · 1 game
Dark Willow
dalul · 1 game
Mirana
Varizh · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
db- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 458 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 263 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
284 picks · 475 bans
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Mantaps
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Mantaps
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Team Mantaps 54%Team Essence 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Mantaps — the game was taken by Team Mantaps in 37:07.
Game 2prediction correct21:13
Team Mantaps 54%Team Essence 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Mantaps — the game was taken by Team Mantaps in 25:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Mantaps · 54%
Series resultTeam Mantaps 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2