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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
team_monkeys-win 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

team_monkeys-

Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
albinozebra · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
albinozebra · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
RCY · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 2 games
0%

Fart Studios

Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Jenkins · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sonic · 5 games
20%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 621 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 585 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
369 picks · 298 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 746 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 342 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 363 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% team_monkeys-
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% team_monkeys-
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
team_monkeys- 52%Fart Studios 48%
The model gave 52% on team_monkeys- — the game was taken by team_monkeys- in 18:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerDouble King
50% · 73 games50% · 183 games
TinyiAnnihilate
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
53% · 248 games54% · 64 games
IoNewsham
Io
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritmonkeys-forever
53% · 156 games46% · 257 games
TechiesSkyward
Techies
Timbersaw
Timbersawalbinozebra
45% · 228 games49% · 201 game
DoomJenkins
Doom
Game 2prediction correct26:19
team_monkeys- 51%Fart Studios 49%
The model gave 51% on team_monkeys- — the game was taken by team_monkeys- in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDouble King
56% · 47 games54% · 142 games
Primal BeastiAnnihilate
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
46% · 196 games44% · 39 games
RazorJenkins
Razor
Chen
Chenalbinozebra
54% · 44 games45% · 114 games
MiranaNewsham
Mirana
Omniknight
Omniknightmonkeys-forever
58% · 8 games
Model check result
Model favoriteteam_monkeys- · 53%
Series resultteam_monkeys- 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2