team_monkeys- vs Sand King Gomez — prediction DS-ОК 23 · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Tteam_monkeys-loss 1:2

series probability

33%67%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Sand King Gomezwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

team_monkeys-

No games played over 6 months.

Sand King Gomez

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

H1j4ck · 3 games

33%

Tusk

CHAAANNN · 3 games

33%

Brewmasteroften banned

H1j4ck · 2 games

Dark Willow

N1NE · 2 games

50%

Grimstrokeoften banned

CHAAANNN · 2 games

Muerta

N1NE · 2 games

Weaveroften banned

N1NE · 2 games

50%

Ancient Apparitionoften banned

CHAAANNN · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

383 picks · 355 bans

52%

Centaur Warrunner

358 picks · 569 bans

57%

Mars

344 picks · 520 bans

55%

Vengeful Spirit

344 picks · 338 bans

50%

Techies

336 picks · 263 bans

53%

Batrider

325 picks · 639 bans

58%

Hoodwink

313 picks · 187 bans

50%

Tiny

300 picks · 298 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% team_monkeys-

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total67% Sand King Gomez

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:30

team_monkeys- 42%Sand King Gomez 58%

The model gave 58% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 44:17.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo