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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Mysteryloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Mystery

Tusk
Tusk
Ponyo · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Ohaiyo · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Ohaiyo · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Ghost · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Ohaiyo · 1 game
0%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 14 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
14%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddon
woMy · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 966 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
399 picks · 556 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
357 picks · 709 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 574 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
311 picks · 297 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 291 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 208 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
264 picks · 142 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Team Mystery
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Mystery
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
Team Mystery 54%Army Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Mystery — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetxiaoyu154
61% · 63 games44% · 69 games
MorphlingMamangDaya
Morphling
Juggernaut
JuggernautGhost
49% · 85 games47% · 145 games
Puckdb-
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMercury
50% · 79 games56% · 10 games
AxewoMy
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfirePonyo
52% · 25 games50% · 140 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskOhaiyo
50% · 112 games
Game 2prediction missed13:37
Team Mystery 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Mystery — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingGhost
53% · 89 games49% · 113 games
Juggernautdb-
Juggernaut
Windranger
WindrangerMercury
43% · 23 games53% · 85 games
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Ember Spirit
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
46% · 166 games48% · 138 games
PangolierwoMy
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixPonyo
59% · 132 games51% · 213 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskOhaiyo
44% · 139 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Mystery · 58%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2