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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Amaru Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 11 games
36%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jing · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Raven · 6 games
33%

Amaru Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 1 game
0%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 1 game
0%
Pugna
Pugna
Gardick · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 354 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
589 picks · 297 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
543 picks · 428 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
537 picks · 641 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 300 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 743 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 530 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:39
Team Nemesis 66%Amaru Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 50:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
55% · 267 games36% · 51 game
KezWits
Kez
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4nalog
52% · 319 games56% · 292 games
Monkey KingTaiLung
Monkey King
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
48% · 161 game50% · 358 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaNARMAN
50% · 146 games47% · 513 games
JakiroGardick
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskJhocam
53% · 321 game
Game 2prediction correct27:20
Team Nemesis 64%Amaru Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernaut23savage
52% · 82 games55% · 263 games
TerrorbladeWits
Terrorblade
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4nalog
46% · 173 games51% · 285 games
PuckTaiLung
Puck
Axe
AxeJabz
49% · 188 games52% · 269 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroNARMAN
46% · 485 games51% · 303 games
WarlockGardick
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
47% · 192 games
Game 3prediction missed25:36
Team Nemesis 63%Amaru Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 1:14:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin23savage
55% · 244 games48% · 477 games
TerrorbladeWits
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
46% · 392 games52% · 463 games
PuckTaiLung
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshaker4nalog
51% · 216 games51% · 363 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroNARMAN
42% · 392 games59% · 236 games
BaneGardick
Bane
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
43% · 295 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 78%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3