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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
18%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 10 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 9 games
56%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 24 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 23 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 20 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 19 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 16 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 876 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 638 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 595 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
398 picks · 828 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
360 picks · 583 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
347 picks · 571 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total70% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:28
Team Nemesis 37%Execration 63%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 49:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
54% · 110 games49% · 246 games
AbaddonPalos
Abaddon
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMac
47% · 133 games51% · 473 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
56% · 162 games46% · 85 games
BrewmasterTino-
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyQ
52% · 332 games52% · 54 games
Faceless VoidShanks
Faceless Void
Ringmaster
RingmasterJaunuel
51% · 215 games43% · 94 games
Skywrath Magecml
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed20:21
Team Nemesis 39%Execration 61%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
53% · 125 games46% · 75 games
WeaverPalos
Weaver
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMac
52% · 190 games43% · 211 games
AxeTino-
Axe
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
55% · 126 games51% · 412 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyQ
55% · 370 games43% · 101 game
Skywrath MageShanks
Skywrath Mage
Ringmaster
RingmasterJaunuel
53% · 246 games49% · 258 games
Disruptorcml
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 70%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2