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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
46%

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Undyne_ · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
497 picks · 409 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 267 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 546 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
403 picks · 350 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
362 picks · 825 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 870 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
344 picks · 201 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed55:40
Team Nemesis 49%Ilbirs eSports 51%
The model gave 51% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:17:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyrubikon155
52% · 467 games54% · 270 games
Monkey KingYuragi
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain4nalog
45% · 333 games48% · 380 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
59% · 370 games53% · 239 games
DoomfortniteMan
Doom
Axe
AxeJabz
44% · 232 games50% · 516 games
WarlockUndyne_
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixYamSun
49% · 300 games46% · 297 games
MuertaPonlo
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct38:51
Team Nemesis 46%Ilbirs eSports 54%
The model gave 54% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 54:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
52% · 441 game47% · 170 games
DoomYuragi
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
51% · 243 games51% · 576 games
Puckniche
Puck
Kez
Kezrubikon155
48% · 128 games49% · 155 games
AxefortniteMan
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
56% · 335 games50% · 317 games
PhoenixUndyne_
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerYamSun
53% · 152 games40% · 81 game
TechiesPonlo
Techies
Game 3prediction missed37:12
Team Nemesis 46%Ilbirs eSports 54%
The model gave 54% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherrubikon155
63% · 31 game49% · 286 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Puck
Puck4nalog
50% · 423 games48% · 204 games
UrsaYuragi
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
45% · 214 games52% · 137 games
Primal BeastfortniteMan
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressYamSun
46% · 151 game53% · 234 games
PhoenixUndyne_
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickLelis
49% · 152 games54% · 110 games
LionPonlo
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 55%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3