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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 11 games
36%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jing · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 21 game
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 19 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 356 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
593 picks · 301 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
555 picks · 447 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 549 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
544 picks · 664 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 305 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
491 picks · 747 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 540 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:25
Team Nemesis 34%Nigma Galaxy 66%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 50:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
52% · 310 games51% · 48 games
AlchemistTA2000
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
52% · 267 games46% · 134 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Axe
AxeJabz
49% · 122 games49% · 225 games
TimbersawNo!ob
Timbersaw
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJhocam
53% · 70 games46% · 199 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Pugna
PugnaNARMAN
55% · 183 games47% · 346 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct10:24
Team Nemesis 36%Nigma Galaxy 64%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa23savage
49% · 235 games46% · 307 games
Dragon KnightTA2000
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
54% · 171 game46% · 239 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Chen
ChenNARMAN
59% · 193 games56% · 30 games
ViperSumaiL
Viper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
49% · 180 games50% · 218 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
51% · 262 games47% · 247 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct18:30
Team Nemesis 32%Nigma Galaxy 68%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight23savage
49% · 330 games41% · 79 games
AlchemistSumaiL
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
47% · 302 games53% · 428 games
AbaddonTA2000
Abaddon
Puck
Puck4nalog
46% · 290 games48% · 405 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
56% · 145 games57% · 120 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroNARMAN
50% · 339 games54% · 374 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3