The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Red Hot Chili Pibbleloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 25 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Windranger
Q · 18 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 14 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
Red Hot Chili Pibble
Disruptor
Prada · 4 games
Rubick
Alone · 4 games
Snapfireoften banned
Alone · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Techies
Mjz · 2 games
Tiny
Mnz · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
632 picks · 434 bans
Rubick
577 picks · 318 bans
Phoenix
480 picks · 574 bans
Pangolier
449 picks · 656 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 383 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 519 bans
Puck
341 picks · 1033 bans
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Red Hot Chili Pibble
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:28
Team Nemesis 68%Red Hot Chili Pibble 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 51:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerrubikon155
TerrorbladeMnz
Snapfire4nalog
ZeusAlone
DoomJabz
UndyingPrada
BaneYamSun
Nyx AssassinMjz
LionLelis
Game 2prediction missed28:42
Team Nemesis 68%Red Hot Chili Pibble 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Red Hot Chili Pibble in 55:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerrubikon155
MuertaMnz
Slardar4nalog
PangolierAlone
AxeJabz
HoodwinkMjz
Shadow DemonLelis
DisruptorPrada
BaneYamSun
Game 3prediction correct
Team Nemesis 80%Red Hot Chili Pibble 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 80%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3