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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
18%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 9 games
56%

Vici Gaming

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 7 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lou · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
548 picks · 900 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 398 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 650 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 604 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 852 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 597 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 581 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 498 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:26
Team Nemesis 42%Vici Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMac
48% · 348 games66% · 86 games
Clinkzshiro
Clinkz
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
50% · 302 games45% · 83 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
52% · 339 games49% · 324 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerQ
42% · 199 games51% · 453 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJaunuel
51% · 282 games48% · 524 games
TinypLAnet
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed31:13
Team Nemesis 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 51:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight23savage
49% · 331 game53% · 470 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyMac
46% · 363 games52% · 454 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
50% · 188 games52% · 269 games
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertaQ
45% · 180 games44% · 83 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterJaunuel
52% · 233 games67% · 19 games
Largoy`
Largo
Game 3prediction correct16:27
Team Nemesis 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 49:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon23savage
54% · 305 games43% · 376 games
PuckXm
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMac
44% · 295 games54% · 174 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
52% · 181 game47% · 220 games
AxeFaith_bian
Axe
Muerta
MuertaQ
56% · 184 games55% · 49 games
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJaunuel
51% · 283 games45% · 429 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 61%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3