?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 0:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ASAKURAwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%

ASAKURA

Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 14 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 12 games
58%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
Lil · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 644 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 730 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 584 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 364 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 799 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
344 picks · 961 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 36%
Hero pool strength63% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team NextUp 37%ASAKURA 63%
The model gave 63% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 63%
Series resultASAKURA 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1