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Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team NextUpwin 1:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Kalmychataloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
75%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
25%

Kalmychata

Bane
Bane
smN · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hina · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
rincyq · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
rincyq · 1 game
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 340 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 474 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 401 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
281 picks · 197 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 151 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
270 picks · 405 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
267 picks · 471 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Team NextUp 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 32:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 53%
Series resultTeam NextUp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1